Online sports news, handicapping and sports picks by Charles Jay

Pro Football

� — Miami does not have the kind of offense these days that’s going to pull away from many people. The Packers have shown some vulnerability to opposing offenses. But is Joey Harrington (63% but just 5 yds/attempt and just one TD) capable of exploiting it? Ronnie Brown’s 127 yards against the Jets may just be an aberration. And offensive coordinator Mike Malarkey is under fire. At least Green Bay still has Brett Favre, who’s cut down on his mistakes (just five INT’s in five games), who will still throw away a game here and there, but the Dolphins haven’t been very opportunistic (only 3 INT’s). Favre getting some surprise contributions from rookie Greg Jennings (18 yds/catch), who making a formidable duo with Donald Driver. Miami has covered just two of last 17 as a home favorite.
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JAY’S PLAY:� GREEN BAY ***

Pro Football

– Opposing rushing attacks has shredded the Bengal defense, to the tune of 4.7 ypc. Cincy’s stop unit is just too banged up, as is the receiving corps. Meanwhile, things are looking up for the Panthers, who have won four straight games, and have Steve Smith back to full strength, to say the least. Smith went for 189 yards against Baltimore last week and now has 450 in four games. he helped this offense noticeably improve in its third-down conversions, going 7-15 against one of the league’s better defenses. Carson Palmer not explosive yet in comeback from injury, and Chad Johnson bothered with a shoulder injury. Take note - Carolina has covered 18 of its last 21 as an underdog.
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JAY’S PLAY: CAROLINA ****

– The Oakland Athletics’ All-Star pitcher for Game 1, Barry Zito, comes in here having put together a couple of solid performances of late. In his last five games, he’s given up 33 hits and 13 earned runs in 34 innings, and in his last two outings he’s been very tough, with just two runs allowed in 14 innings. Nate Robertson, the other southpaw in this matchup, has not exactly been on a hot streak; after posting nine rather outstanding efforts in ten outings, he’s faltered a bit in the last two, with 22 hits and 13 runs in 10-2/3 frames. Maybe the 208 innings he pitched in the regular season (that’s a lot of work) started to take their toll a bit. The Tigers have won 98 games so far, but the team has only been 15-18 in the games Robertson has started (6-10 on the road); this is in rather sharp contrast to the A’s and their 22-13 record with Zito on the hill. It would appear Detroit has better alternatives upcoming with youngsters Verlander and Bonderman and veteran Kenny Rogers (25-4 in Oakland, but curiously not slated to start there in the first road go-around). Oakland probably has a little more pop in its offense, particularly as it looks like Eric Chavez might be over his slump. Frank Thomas has come up with huge hits - he was .500 in the Divisional Series, with a couple of homers in Game 1 to carry his team.
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JAY’S PLAY:� OAKLAND

– You hear it from everybody - they talk about how much more confidence the Baltimore Ravens have in their offense now that they have Steve MvNair at the helm. Not that Baltimore has gone high-tech in its offense - that doesn’t look like it will happen under Brian Billick. But McNair’s presence gives the Ravens the opportunity to score more in come-from-behind situations and in two-minute drills, because he can handle the clock like the veteran he is. Still, a Brian Billick offense is a Brian Billick offense, which in Baltimore is a far cry from what he did as an assistant in Minnesota. These are the NFL’s two best red zone defenses, allowing just two touchdowns in 16 possessions inside the 20-yard line.

Since both teams have rather reliable field goal kickers - Matt Stover for the Ravens and Jason Elam for the Broncos - they won’t likely squander a lot of opportunities of that type, but that’s three points instead of seven, and there might tend to be an over-reliance on the kick. Both these clubs have played all unders thus far - with inconsistency at QB (Jake Plummer just 51%), Denver relying more and more on a staunch defensive effort, which is holding opponents to 10 ppg and just one touchdown from scrimmage. And Mile High Stadium (or whatever it’s called), which was once a haven for high-scoring games, has now produced six unders in the last nine. Ravens have registered 17 unders in the last 21 road contests, so this explains the low number put forward by the oddsmaker. But it’s justified.

JAY’S PLAY: UNDER 33

– We’ve still got faith in the TCU defense, despite the thrashing it took at the hands of BYU’s John Beck in last week’s 31-17 Cougar romp. And Brett Ratliff, who looked very promising after leading Utah to wins over BYU and Georgia Tech last year, has not come close to expectations. Ratliff was 5-21 for 30 yards and three INT’s against Boise State, yet backup Tommy Grady, a 6′7″ Oklahoma transfer, has not been pushing hard for playing time. Obviously TCU’s seen more potent offenses this season, even those playing some version of the “spread.” And must keep in mind that QB Jeff Ballard’s lost just one game as the TCU starter. Horned Frogs, despite the two-touchdown loss, racked up 437 yards and 29 first downs against Brigham Young, so its offense is functioning at a much higher level right now than confused Utes.
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JAY’S PLAY:� TCU ***

On the surface, it’s quite simple – TO WIN. But looking at it more analytically, to accomplish that end, the player must realize some “sub-objectives”, if you will. They are:

* NOT necessarily to pick the best team in a game, but to recognize SITUATIONS which are right for a play, and to exploit those situations. Let’s face it – when Indianapolis ended its winless streak by defeating the Super Bowl champion Green Bay Packers in 1997, it didn’t happen because the Colts were the better team. It happened because there were a set of circumstances that came together, adding up to a Colt victory. For example:

1. The Colts, though winless to that point, had put forth 100% efforts in most of their games.
2. The indoor Hoosier Dome crowd was loud and enthusiastic and sometimes gives the home squad a shot of adrenaline.
3. The Super Bowl champions are a team that often brings out a maximum effort from the opponent.
4. Playing a winless team is often viewed as a non-challenge for a proven playoff team, and thus might not bring forth a maximum effort.
5. The Packers had a major revenge game with Dallas up next, followed by division games against contenders Minnesota and Tampa Bay, creating the perfect scenario for a “look-ahead”;
6. Green Bay was laying 12.5 points in a road game, a huge amount no matter what the matchup;
7. Green Bay was terrifically overvalued by the oddsmaker, and overbet by the public, and it showed, as evidenced by their 1-8-1 pointspread record coming into the game;
8. Green Bay was not at its best on artificial turf, having covered just five of their last 16 games on the carpet.

When you consider all this, the Colts actually looked like a pretty good pointspread play, didn’t they? Well, the general public didn’t think so. All they did was not only cover, but win outright.

* To come out at the end with a PROFIT. To do this, the player does NOT have to win every game, or even necessarily a majority of games. If you bet 10 games and lost seven of them, you lost $110 a game, or $770, but on the three you won you played $500 apiece, you would be $730 ahead of the game, despite a record of 3-7, wouldn’t you? The key was the apportionment of funds. Just MAKE MONEY.

* To play SELECTIVELY, meaning that the player doesn’t make a bet for the sake of making a bet, but rather because there’s a good reason to do so. Just because ESPN televises a college game on Thursday night doesn’t necessarily mean you have to play the game. In fact, it’s often the wrong time to play. Players who feel they have to bet a game just so they can watch it probably should not watch it, but go to a movie instead. Also, people who “play the board” do not last long at all. Remember, the more games you play, the less significant your “margin” is going to be. For example, if you go 10-6, and played $100 on each game, you win $1000 and lose $660 for a total of $340 profit. If you went 6-2, still a margin of four games, you’d win $600 and lose back $220 for a $380 profit. The 11/10 can eat you up with more games. Think quality, not quantity.

* To find situations that present good VALUE in the pointspread, meaning, in layman’s terms, that the player has a “good deal” with the line he is playing the game at. Value is KEY to finding success in sports betting.

* Anticipate INTANGIBLES about the teams the player is backing. Knowing when a team is primed for a top effort, when scheduling is in their favor, when they’re tired, hurt, dissension-ridden, etc. is information that means something. Do homework. If you put some time in, you’ve already got a leg up on the vast majority of players.

* To avoid falling into TRAPS on games. The smart player thoroughly examines his options, especially those games that look, on the surface, “too good to be true,” or “locks.”

* To avoid committing FOOLISH MISTAKES with money. Chasing losers, playing with “scared” money, betting a maximum amount on every game, and betting too much on a given play are just a few of the pitfalls the smart player has to overcome. A classic case is Monday Night Football, which was created, it seems, as a “bailout” night for people who lost over the weekend. Losing players tend to “load in” on Monday night in the hope of getting the losses back. And all novices seem to play it big, whether there’s really a play there or not. The Monday night NFL game is truly a test of the player’s discipline.

* To realize the goal is LONG-TERM results, not those in the short-term. Anybody can win some games over a weekend, but it really takes skill to beat the 11/10 over the long haul. Players should not get too high or too low over any one week, because it’s a long season.